вторник, 10 февруари 2009 г.

Лъжи, долни лъжи и статистика

Това мнение го написах на английски, за съжаление не ми остана време да го преведа на български.

Statistics:

English Premier League Champions:
2007/08 - Manchester United - won 27 matches from 38 - 71,05%
2006/07 - Manchester United - 28/38 - 73,68%
2005/06 - Chelsea - 29/38 - 76,32%
2004/05 - Chelsea - 29/38 - 76,32%
2003/04 - Arsenal - 26/38 - 68,42%
2002/03 - Manchester United - 25/38 - 65,79%
2001/02 - Arsenal - 26/38 - 68,42%
2000/2001 - Manchester United - 24/38 - 63,16%
1999/2000 - Manchester United - 28/38 - 73,68%
1998/1999 - Manchester United - 22/38 - 57,89%
1997/1998 - Arsenal - 23/38 - 60,53%
1996/1997 - Manchester United - 21/38 - 55,26%
1995/1996 - Manchester United - 25/38 - 65,79%
1994/1995 - Blackburn Rovers - 27/42 - 64,29%
1993/1994 - Manchester United - 27/42 - 64,29%
1992/1993 - Manchester United - 24/42 - 57,14%
1991/1992 - Leeds United - 22/42 - 52,38%
1990/1991 - Arsenal - 24/38 - 63,16%
1989/1990 - Liverpool - 23/38 - 60,53%
1988/1989 - Arsenal - 22/38 - 57,89%
1987/1988 - Liverpool - 26/40 - 65,00%
1986/1987 - Everton - 26/42 - 61,90%

Spanish Primera Division:
2007/2008 - Real Madrid - 27/38 - 71,05%
2006/2007 - Real Madrid - 23/38 - 60,53%
2005/06 - Barcelona - 25/38 - 65,79%
2004/05 - Barcelona - 25/38 - 65,79%
2003/04 - Valencia - 23/38 - 60,53%
2002/03 - Real Madrid - 22/38 - 57,89%
2001/02 - Valencia - 21/38 - 55,26%

Italian Serie A:
2007/08 - Internazionale - 25/38 - 65,79%
2006/07 - Internazionale - 30/38 - 78,95%
2005/06 - Internazionale - 23/38 - 60,53%
2004/05 - Juventus - 26/38 - 68,42%
2003/04 - AC Milan - 25/34 - 73,53%
2002/03 - Juventus - 21/34 - 61,76%
2001/02 - Juventus - 20/34 - 58,82%

English Premier League - 2008/09 (29.01.2009)
Manchester United - 68,18%
Liverpool - 56,52%

You can't always trust the statistics, especially if you talk about soccer, but I see a clear pattern that in the championships, where there is more competition and more really professional clubs like Spain and Italy, you need less wins to win the Championship than in England. I don't want to underrate teams like Stoke City or West Bromwich Albion, my respect for them and their fans, but teams (as of 29.01.2009 occupying the bottom of the table in their respective countries) like Espanyol, Osasuna, Chievo Verona, Reggina, etc. would challenge Real Madrid, Barcelona, AC Milan or Juventus much more successfully than Stoke or West Bromwich challenged the "almighty" Manchester United, sitting hopelessly and waiting for the "almighty" Ronaldo to score a goal. And if he can't score a goal, we all know what will happen - the "referee" will help. A simple penalty from nowhere will do just fine. What kind of championship is a championship where a single team will go 11 (eleven!) matches without a conceded goal, with Gary Neville taking an important part in their defense formation?

The English Championship has deteriorated after the sad Heysel Stadium Disaster, and its consequences on British football. You just needed a single quality player with passion like Eric Cantona to win the league (Leeds in 1992, Manchester United - 1992-93, 1993-94, 1995-96, 1996-97). My heart nearly failed when I came across this in Wikipedia: "On 6 November 1991, after Liverpool's 3-0 victory over Auxerre in a UEFA Cup Second Round second leg tie at Anfield, Liverpool manager Graeme Souness was met by Frenchman Michel Platini at the end of the game, who told him that Cantona would like to play for Liverpool. Souness thanked Platini, but declined the offer, citing dressing room harmony as his reason".

This is one of the main reasons for Manchester United's domination in the Premier League. The luck of other real contenders has given them the titles and the false, false feeling that they might be greater than Liverpool. Rafael "Rafa" Benitez Maudes had the courage to say the other reason. The only teams that challenged Manchester United were Chelsea (exceptional team, thanks to Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich's money. Even in Football Manager you can't easily build such a team) and Arsenal, due to support and money given to Arsene Wenger. Who "thanked" Arsenal by losing a nearly won match against Barcelona and depriving his club of the chance to own a European Champion Clubs' Cup. For the first time in Arsenal's "great" history. We have 5 (five), Aston Villa has one, Nottingham Forest - two. And last, but not least, we have to mention Blackburn Rovers, winning the Premier League thanks to Jack Walker.

But things are slowly changing now. This year we have five clubs capable of winning the Premiership. So this means that if we are lucky, we can win it too, even now. It is only the media that are saying we have lost any chance. This is not true. We drew with Everton (a derby match) and Wigan (a club in the first half of the table) which is the most normal thing in a championship of the rank of Premier League. And it has suddenly become the end of our dreams. Why? Because of the disbalance in the Premiership that has been existent for so many years. It is either Manchester United thrashing everyone due to fear or feeling of hopelessness in the other clubs or the other clubs doing some financial miracles, like Blackburn, Chelsea and even Arsenal, having dream teams capable of challenging Manchester United. This is nearly over now. And we have every chance to win the title this year. So if you can't support the team you love, you can support Liverpool FC, because you might be supporting the team that will win the Premier League this year.


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